Michigan population: 10,034,113 (2022, estimated)
Grand Rapids metro area population: 1,091,620 (2021, estimated)
Total active CPL Holders in Michigan: 799,564 (March 2023)
GR Metro Area: 65,069
~10.6% of age-allowed Michigan adults are active holders of CPLs.
~7.94% of age allowed Greater Grand Rapids area adults are active holders of CPLs.
[1]
"Shall Issue" is a legal phrase that binds a governing body or institution from any discretionary leeway when determining whether an individual is issued a license or permit, providing that the individual has met all encoded prerequisites.
So long as an individual has applied for a CPL, has met the long laundry list of prerequisites, and submits to all required background checks, he or she must be issued a CPL within 45 days of successfully completing the application.
A 2004 literature and data review by the National Academy of Sciences concluded that there is "[no] link between right-to-carry laws and changes in crime". [2]
A 2018 review of nearly 20 years of gun policy studies and a 2023 update by the non-partisan RAND Corporation further find nearly no link. The review makes almost no policy recommendation based on what little evidence it found either way.
"The NICS conducts background checks on people who want to own a firearm or explosive, as required by law."
This is the background check that is run every single time somebody purchases a firearm from a Federal Firearm Licensee (FFL), casually known as a "gun store".
A similar check is also performed by Michigan State Police while a CPL application is under review.
The MSP runs its own state-level background check, covering arrests, convictions, orders, and other situations that the NICS is not privy to. This is akin to the additional background checks that states which are more firearm-restrictive run during regular firearm sales.
A CPL applicant must voluntarily provide the state of Michigan with his or her fingerprints -- regardless of whether the state already has them from a prior arrest -- in order to be issued a CPL.
The number of CPL holders in the state of MI is increasing roughly at a rate of 25k year-over-year. [4] Despite this, annual number CPL holder convictions have remained relatively stable, around 1.6k, per MSP data. [3]
It's very difficult to nail down national and even state-wide crime and conviction rates, so we have attempted to tackle the numbers a couple different ways. The MSP very clearly reports on exactly how many CPL holders have been convicted of crimes, which in the majority of cases result in either temporary suspension (minimum 6 months, first offense) or outright revocation, depending on the offense. Simply being charged with a misdemeanor -- even if charges are eventually vacated -- is enough to immediately induce a suspension.
Michigan CPL Holders are:
~17x less likely to have committed a crime as Grand Rapidians in general.
(does not include non-violent, non-property crimes, such as firearms offenses, which absolutely result in CPL suspension and revocation)
~26x less likely to have committed a crime as Michiganders in general.
This picture is certainly not complete, as we are comparing convictions against crime incidence. Please email us at admin@grandrapidsconcealedcarry.org with any further information and data on U.S/Michigan/Grand Rapids area criminal statistics.
A 2000 study done in Texas shortly after they introduced their shall issue CPL program (known as "CHL" in the Lonestar State) resulted in similar numbers: as large as an 18x discrepancy in a CHL holder vs. the average Texan. [5]
For further information and handy graphs, please refer to the U.S Concealed Carry Association's (USCCA) resources and FAQ about concealed carry.
Annual CPL holder convictions: 1,591
Annual US federal convictions: ~56,981
Annual MI crimes (incidents): 537,336
Annual GR crime*: 7,025
(crime rates should be interpreted as "per 100k" population, as is standard)
The number of DGUs per year in the United States is very difficult to estimate. Still, from varying academic sources of quite different predispositions (pro-gun-control vs. pro-permissive-gun-ownership), we get a fairly wide potential range.
~50k DGUs/yr at the low end
~2M DGUs/yr at the high end
Middle-ground projections lie in the 100k-200k range
Much of the difficulty arises from defining a DGU to be counted:
A great, short synopsis of much of the disparity among estimates can be found on the Wikipedia article discussing Defensive Gun Use.
The most famous "2.1 million DGUs per year" stat comes from a 1995 study by Florida State professors Gary Kleck and Marc Gertz. They aggregated the data from several national surveys in order to reach this number. [6]
On the other end, David Hemenway -- a gun-control advocate and researcher of gun violence -- accuses Kleck and Gertz of including too many false positives in their estimates. He estimates the number to be closer to 80k. [7]
Annual firearm deaths across the US: ~45k
Annual DGUs (most critical, low-end): ~50k
Note:
The numbers for firearms deaths are easy to count and recent (within 1-2 years).
The academic estimates are >20 years old, and since then:
At the lowest end, DGUs occur at a rate higher than guns are used to kill. That's not even considering the fact that overall "gun deaths" (gun homicides) in the US include "justified gun homicide", which would fall under DGU.
At middle-of-the-road estimates, DGUs occur at a rate higher than guns are used in crime.
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